The first step in this method is to calculate the probability of all 7 possible pertinent outcomes of a pass line bet after a point is established. This will either be time-consuming, redundant, and boring, or you can do it in a spreadsheet in an automated manner. Recursively work your way back to the starting point. For example, if the shooter needs a 4 only, then three things can happen: (1) He establishes and makes the 4, (2) He establishes and makes a point he already made, (3) He sevens out. Start with the states close to the end, in which the shooter already made 5 points. If you plan to try to recreate my work, here is some advice on going from one state to another.
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